Polymarket just asked the CFTC for permission to bring its main exchange back to American traders. On the same day, it ripped out its entire trading infrastructure and rebuilt it from scratch. Kalshi posted $3.91 billion in weekly volume, its highest ever. The Senate introduced a bipartisan resolution to ban all lawmakers from prediction markets. And Finland is the betting favorite to win Eurovision.
Polymarket Wants Back Into the US
This is the biggest story in prediction markets this year, and it happened almost quietly.
On April 28, Polymarket began formal discussions with the CFTC to lift the ban that has kept its main exchange off-limits to American users since 2022. That year, the CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million for operating without proper registration. Polymarket settled, pulled out of the US, and spent the next four years building the largest prediction market in the world from outside America's borders.
The timing isn't accidental. Last July, Polymarket acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, for $112 million. That gave them a regulatory vehicle. Now they want to use it.
If the CFTC approves, the effect is simple: American retail liquidity floods back into Polymarket. The US has more prediction market traders than any other country. Polymarket has been serving them through a wink-and-nod VPN culture, but institutional capital and mainstream retail won't touch an exchange where US participation is technically prohibited. Remove that prohibition, and market depth on major events could double or triple.
The Platform Overhaul Nobody Noticed
On the same day Polymarket filed with the CFTC, it executed a complete infrastructure upgrade. New smart contracts. A rewritten order book engine. A new collateral token called Polymarket USD (pUSD), backed 1:1 by USDC on Polygon. Trading paused for roughly an hour during the cutover.
This is the kind of thing that gets zero media coverage but matters enormously. The old infrastructure was built when Polymarket processed a few hundred thousand dollars a day. Now it handles hundreds of millions.
Kalshi Just Had Its Best Week Ever
Kalshi posted $3.91 billion in weekly volume for the week of April 20-28, its highest ever. That's nearly double Polymarket's weekly volume for the same period. Sports parlays drove more than 85% of the total.
Kalshi isn't competing with Polymarket for political prediction nerds. It's competing with DraftKings and FanDuel for sports bettors. The prediction market wrapper lets Kalshi offer sports parlays with lower vig than traditional sportsbooks.
The Senate Wants Lawmakers Out
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) introduced a bipartisan resolution on April 24 that would ban all members of Congress from trading on prediction markets entirely. This is separate from and broader than the PREDICT Act. Five co-sponsors from both parties.
Paradoxically bullish for the industry. Every one of these bills implicitly accepts that prediction markets are legitimate financial instruments worth regulating. You don't ban members of Congress from doing something that's about to be shut down.
Eurovision 2026 Odds
Finland leads at 35.3% on Polymarket. Interesting discrepancy: Denmark is 13.4% on Polymarket but only 7% at bookmakers. Israel is the reverse: 5.1% on Polymarket versus 11% at bookmakers. When the same event is priced differently on two platforms, someone is leaving money on the table.
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